Come kick-off at 7:30pm tomorrow night, March 27, few things will be certain. The result will still be unknown. None of the teams in Group F are guaranteed progression to the Asian Cup. There are still three competitors for the two qualification slots, with several different permutations.
The Philippines does know one thing, though: Our fate is still under our control. We top the group with 9 points. Yemen and Tajikistan are tied on seven points, in second and third respectively, since Yemen has a superior head-to-head record over the latter.
A win or a draw takes the Azkals to the Asian Cup for the first time. However, our place in the United Arab Emirates next year is by no means guaranteed. Tajikistan are fighting to win in Manila, which would be the only way they would qualify, while Yemen play a mathematically-disqualified Nepal in Doha forty-five minutes after our game kicks off, where a win would bring them to the UAE.
A possibility still exists that the Philippines would still miss out. If Tajikistan and Yemen both win tomorrow, then we would drop down to third in the group, despite being top at the start of the day.
So it all comes down to matchday six, the final round of games.
Team Selection:
The Philippines have a team approaching full strength for tomorrow. Amani Aguinaldo, who has been stricken with a long-term injury for several months, is the only high-profile absence.
Cardiff City keeper Neil Etheridge, Sepsi Sfântu Gheorghe fullback Daisuke Sato, and former Henan Jianye striker Javier Patiño arrive to bolster the team who defeated Fiji in a friendly last week, adding to the likes of Phil Younghusband, Mike and Manny Ott, and Misagh Bahadoran.
The Philippines will probably line up in Thomas Dooley’s preferred 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 formation. Javier Patiño will start upfront, to provide the offensive focal point that the team has been needing since his injury. Captain Phil Younghusband might either be dropped deeper or deployed beside Patiño for a front two, but that might isolate the midfield from the attack, and Phil’s range of passing and vision suit him playing in a slightly deeper role, just behind the striker, where he can both supply the frontline and score goals himself.
In the latter position, Younghusband would spearhead a dangerous-looking midfield trio that incorporates the Ceres-Bacolod pairing of Manny Ott and Kevin Ingreso.
Manny Ott provides a blend of aggression, energy, and creativity. His box-to-box runs can power the team forward, freeing space and creating chances for the frontline. Ingreso plays deeper, as the shield for the defence, recycling possession. His shooting, as demonstrated by his well-taken half-volley against Fiji, is also a threat.
If Dooley does play a front three, Patiño will be flanked by two wingers. Dooley has several options in this regard, with Misagh Bahadoran, Iain Ramsay, Hikaru Minegishi, and Mike Ott competing for the two places out wide. Any two from these four are likely to play, but Bahadoran’s experience and Mike Ott’s good form for Ceres should get them chosen ahead of the other two.
The defence is also a key area. Neil Etheridge is an almost-certain starter in goal, providing the solidity that has been found slightly lacking in our other keepers. Central defence is more of a question, with Ceres’ Sean Kane involved in the equation with Dennis Villanueva, Carli De Murga, and Simone Rota.
De Murga has been the rock in the heart of Ceres’ defence so far this season, and with his experience, should be picked.
Villanueva, who can also play as a midfielder, adds the ability to start play from the back, something Dooley’s possession-based game would appreciate, which could be a factor if he is chosen to play in front of the more experienced Rota, though Sean Kane could challenge Villanueva in this respect, as another converted midfielder.
The opposition:
Tajikistan are also determined to win. Anything less than three points will end their bid to go to the Asian Cup.
Coach Khakim Fuzaylov has stated that “It’s a very important match for us”, while defender Iskandar Dzhalilov has declared that, “A win over the Philippines would go down in Tajik history.”
Tajikistan have the weapons to hurt us. Though we beat them 4-3 in Dushanbe in last June’s reverse fixture, they gave us some real scares, almost coming back to draw from 3-0 down until Daisuke Sato’s 79th minute thunderbolt settled matters, despite a late goal from Manuchekr Dzahalilov.
Parvizdzhon Umarbayev of Lokomotiv Plovdiv provides creativity, Istiklol’s Dilshod Vasiev gives them a potent attacker, while star midfielder Nuriddin Davronov could feature, having been injured for in our match against each other last June.
Conclusion:
Four years ago, the Azkals reached the 2014 AFC Challenge Cup final. A win there would take them to the Asian Cup and allow them to lift the country’s first major international trophy in more than a century.
We lost that final 1-0 to Palestine, thanks to Ashraf Nu’man’s stunning free kick.
Tomorrow, we have the opportunity to banish the memory of that loss. A chance to take us farther than we have ever gone.
When Phil Younghusband leads the team out at Rizal Memorial Football Stadium, he will know that our fate is in our hands, but not only that. He will also know that he and his teammates have the chance to make history.
The Flying Winger 